Though Smith drew some top-three-rounds interest as a Florida prepster in 2022, he ultimately went undrafted because he was old for his class (19 years, 5 months) and strongly committed to Florida State. He made adjustments after a rough freshman season, earning top-prospect accolades from scouts in the Cape Cod League that summer and All-America honors after leading the Seminoles to the College World Series last spring. After signing for $5,070,700 as the 14th overall pick by the Cubs, he homered in six consecutive games at Single-A and went deep in the Double-A Southern League playoffs, then joined the Astros as part of the Kyle Tucker trade in December.
Smith found more success at the plate by adopting a more compact stance, making better swing decisions and getting less pull-happy, which helped boost his OPS from .843 to 1.142 while cutting his strikeout rate from 29 to 15 percent from 2023 to 2024 at Florida State. He now regularly barrels balls from the right side of the plate and generates high exit velocities while exhibiting impressive bat speed and strength. The only real knock on his offensive game is his propensity to hit balls on the ground, which mutes some of his well-above-average raw power and may cap his home run output at 20-25 per year.
Smith has fringy speed and doesn't offer much value on the bases. He has decent range at third base and the plus arm strength desired at the position, though he's a bit erratic with the glove and the accuracy of his throws. If he can't polish his defense at the hot corner or loses some agility as he gets older, he could wind up in right field.
Smith displayed top-three-rounds talent as a Florida high schooler in 2022 but went undrafted because he was old for his class at 19 years and five months and also had a strong Florida State commitment. After a rough freshman season with the Seminoles, he made some changes to his stance and approach and starred in the Cape Cod League, where scouts voted him the summer circuit's top prospect. He earned All-America honors and led Florida State to the College World Series by batting .387 with 16 homers in 2024, a prelude to going 14th overall in the Draft to the Cubs and signing for $5,070,700. He reached Double-A at the conclusion of a strong pro debut, then went to the Astros in the Kyle Tucker trade in December.
Smith employed a more compact stance, made better swing decisions and used the entire field more judiciously in 2024 than he did a year ago, adjustments that helped him cut his strikeout rate from 29 to 15 percent. A right-handed hitter, he consistently barrels balls and produces high exit velocities thanks to his combination of bat speed and strength. He hits a lot of groundballs and has yet to pull the ball regularly in the air, which may cap his home run ceiling at 20 per season.
Though he has fringy speed and isn't much of a threat on the bases, Smith has decent range at third base. His plus arm strength fits well at the hot corner, and he was a more reliable defender in his second college season compared to his first. If he loses any quickness as he gets older, he could land in right field.
Three players from Palm Beach Central High School have reached the big leagues, though all three went on to junior college or college before signing. Smith, a bit of a popup prospect this spring, has the chance to be the first player to actually get drafted out of the school since Brad Peacock was a draft-and-follow in the 41st round of the 2006 Draft, although he didn’t sign until after a spring at Palm Beach State College.
Smith has stood out this spring with his long, projectable frame and his potential to hit for average and power. The 6-foot-3 infielder does need to add strength, but he’s already showing impressive pop, especially to his pull side. There is some length to his swing, but he hasn’t had many issues making consistent hard contact this year.
Rangy and athletic with decent hands and arm, some think Smith has an outside chance to stick at shortstop, the position he plays for Palm Beach Central. Others see him outgrowing the position as he fills out, with a move to third more likely. Either way, his bat will garner the most interest, especially given how much strength he can potentially add to his frame. He’ll be a bit old for some Draft models, over 19 years old come July, but the offensive upside might be high enough for a team to sign him away from his commitment to Florida State.
A Top 100 prospect as the 2022 Draft approached, Smith’s commitment to Florida State as well as the fact that he was over 19 years old -- old for some team’s Draft models -- led to him not being selected. While he hit a dozen homers as a Seminoles freshman, he struggled at times to catch up to the higher level of competition. He caught up in a hurry over the summer, earning Most Outstanding Pro Prospect honors in the Cape Cod League after finishing with a .981 OPS, and he’s upped his game again during his Draft-eligible sophomore season.
At 6-foot-3, 220 pounds, Smith already looks the part with plenty of now strength. How much he hits will help dictate how consistently he can get to his plus raw power, and he’s answered that question well last summer and this spring. He struggled to stick to an approach and have quality at-bats during his freshman year, often chasing pitches out of the zone, but that was vastly improved on the Cape, with his miss rate dropping from 29 percent to 19 over the summer. It’s a trend that’s continued in 2024 as Smith continued keep the swing-and-miss to a minimum.
Smith runs better than he did in high school and has the chance to be a very good third baseman, with a strong arm, at the next level. His ability to duplicate, and even surpass, what he did on the Cape during his sophomore campaign in Tallahassee has allowed him to be the kind of college performer who is rising up boards.
These run values are leveraged, meaning the base/out situation at the time of the event does impact the run value (thus introducing context outside the batter's own contribution).
Note: xHR tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. The "Adjusted" view here accounts for different wall heights, distances and environmental effects using Statcast Park Factor data.
Standard
Year
HR
2025
3
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
Player
3
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
2
1
1
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
3
1
2
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
Note: xHR tells how many of this player's home runs would have been out of other stadiums. The "Standard" view here accounts for different wall heights and distances but excludes environmental effects. It is based purely on the observed trajectory of the hit.
! Note: Shifts are through the 2022 season, Shaded starting from the 2023 season, Shift: three or more infielders are on the same side of second base, Shade: positioned outside of their typical responsible slices of the field. Learn more about how positioning is defined here
